Confusion Worse Confounded.
The title is predictable, but the course of events is not; currently the Israeli Government are bemused, for the
prospect is unclear. They appear to have made informal approaches which may lead to negotiations for the return of the two soldiers seized by Hezbollah, the event which triggered the start of the recent conflict. Success in that regard might do much to help bolster their damaged reputation amongst the country's electors. However, a negotiated exchange of prisoners could also encourage Arab opponents, who have been too greatly heartened already by the Israelis' failure to defeat and evict Hezbollah from South Lebanon.On the other side, the Lebanese Government have sent in one quarter of their army (allegedly some 15,000 men) into the area, where the existing Unifil force of observers (2000 strong) is being strengthened by the addition of another 15,000 soldiers, drawn from a variety of nations. Progress in this respect has been slow and hesitant, with the French Government's
veering between claiming the leadership of the new body and sending a detachment only 200 strong: now they are despatching 2,000. The Italians have offered to contribute 3,000, and other European states have offered about 2,000 between them, making a total of 7,000, well short of the target number.
Equally serious are the exact remit of the U.N.'s expanded group (hitherto purely that of observers) and the terms and rules of engagement. It does not appear that enforcement and peacekeeping are contemplated; certainly disarmament of Hezbollah is not envisaged, except as a voluntary act on the part of the former combatants. It is understood that the activists in Hezbollah are supposedly handing over their weapons and equipment to the Lebanese Army, many of whose members are Shi'ites, probably with strong sympathies with
the Hezbollah movement. As for cutting off the flow of weapons and supplies from abroad, the frontier between
Lebanon and Syria seems to be open, unguarded and unmonitored.
One hope is a little more encouraging; many supporters of Hezbollah are busily working on relief and rehabilitation in the the war-damaged areas, and no doubt many Israelis are engaged on similar tasks South of the Lebanese border. It is just possible that such efforts might defer - and even deter the parties from- a resumption of hostilities. The real need, rarely canvassed in Israeli, British and American governmental circles, is for a genuine bid to open negotiations with Arab leaders such as Hezbollah's Nasrullah and President Bashar Assad of Syria, and also President Ahmedinajad of Iran.
Michael B. Buck.
prospect is unclear. They appear to have made informal approaches which may lead to negotiations for the return of the two soldiers seized by Hezbollah, the event which triggered the start of the recent conflict. Success in that regard might do much to help bolster their damaged reputation amongst the country's electors. However, a negotiated exchange of prisoners could also encourage Arab opponents, who have been too greatly heartened already by the Israelis' failure to defeat and evict Hezbollah from South Lebanon.On the other side, the Lebanese Government have sent in one quarter of their army (allegedly some 15,000 men) into the area, where the existing Unifil force of observers (2000 strong) is being strengthened by the addition of another 15,000 soldiers, drawn from a variety of nations. Progress in this respect has been slow and hesitant, with the French Government's
veering between claiming the leadership of the new body and sending a detachment only 200 strong: now they are despatching 2,000. The Italians have offered to contribute 3,000, and other European states have offered about 2,000 between them, making a total of 7,000, well short of the target number.
Equally serious are the exact remit of the U.N.'s expanded group (hitherto purely that of observers) and the terms and rules of engagement. It does not appear that enforcement and peacekeeping are contemplated; certainly disarmament of Hezbollah is not envisaged, except as a voluntary act on the part of the former combatants. It is understood that the activists in Hezbollah are supposedly handing over their weapons and equipment to the Lebanese Army, many of whose members are Shi'ites, probably with strong sympathies with
the Hezbollah movement. As for cutting off the flow of weapons and supplies from abroad, the frontier between
Lebanon and Syria seems to be open, unguarded and unmonitored.
One hope is a little more encouraging; many supporters of Hezbollah are busily working on relief and rehabilitation in the the war-damaged areas, and no doubt many Israelis are engaged on similar tasks South of the Lebanese border. It is just possible that such efforts might defer - and even deter the parties from- a resumption of hostilities. The real need, rarely canvassed in Israeli, British and American governmental circles, is for a genuine bid to open negotiations with Arab leaders such as Hezbollah's Nasrullah and President Bashar Assad of Syria, and also President Ahmedinajad of Iran.
Michael B. Buck.
posted by Michael Buck at 3:27 AM
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